湖南省耕地变化的趋势及其政策选择

经济社会发展加快了土地利用,造成耕地资源的进一步减少,要实现经济、社会协调发展,就必须了解耕地的变化和利用状况。文章应用相关分析方法对湖南省总人口、房地产投资、城市化水平、国民生产总值指数进行分析,结果表明它们与湖南省年末实有耕地面积变化具有很大的相关性;同时又应用多元线性回归方法定量分析了湖南经济社会发展对耕地利用数量的变化状况,并根据模型预测了2010—2030年湖南省年末实有耕地面积的变化。在此基础上,提出了保护耕地的政策选择是控制人口增长、适时加快城市化进程、调整土地利用结构、提高土地效应、提高农业用地效益等。     

基于多维动态模型的中国股指相关性预测研究

运用时间序列的ADCC(Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation)多维GARCH模型和CCC(Constant Conditional Correlation)多维GARCH模型对中国主要股指之间的相关性进行预测,并对预测结果进行评价和比较,结果表明ADCC多维GARCH模型拟合和预测中国股指相关性较好,这为投资组合管理和风险管理提供了理论支持。     

中国纺织助剂市场的现状及预测

介绍了中国纺织助剂市场的现状,介绍了未来几年对中国纺织助剂市场影响较大的各种因素.预测了中国纺织助剂市场未来5年的产销额和发展趋势.     

我国主要石化产品需求预测及供求结构分析

运用改进了的弹性法对乙烯和乙烯为主要原料的石化产品的市场需求进行了预测，并且对乙烯等石化产品的生产－消费结构进行了系统分析，为我国石化产业结构调整和发展提供了具体建议和对策。     

连锁超市配送中心过节囤货问题探讨

随着物流业和连锁超市的发展，配送中心在连锁超市中的地住越来越重要。由传统仓库向配送中心的改变是一个痛苦的过程，而这个痛苦的过程的表现之一就是文中的“过节囤货系列问题”。本文通过分析过节囤货问题的危害及其原因，并结合我国连锁超市的实际情况，提出了解决该问题的方案。     

我国石油消费市场回顾及发展趋势预测

文章回顾了近年来我国原油、成品油的消费状况和进出口状况，对与石油市场相关的各个行业的发展动态进行了分析。预测未来10-15年全国成品油消费总量增幅将继续维持平缓增长势头。由于乙烯和对二甲苯需求量的稳步增长，对化工轻油的需求量将会继续增加。建议在原油加工量一定的情况下，应将有限的石油资源优先保证化工产业发展，抓紧实施石油替代和燃料多元化战略，加快替代燃料的开发，尽量减少交通用油的比重。     

A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies

In this paper, we propose a risk forecasting model for emerging market currencies. Our model is based on the Markov regime switch which is constructed by exploiting daily equity market information, and we show that our model outperforms the existing model using macroeconomic information. We evaluate it by the performance measures, the goodness-of-fit and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.     

龙永煤田仁盘西矿区构造特征及找煤预测

文章通过对矿区构造特征分析,认为矿区中西部大面积分布泥盆统桃子坑组(D3tz)、下石炭统林地组(C1l)等老地层,呈上覆现象,其老地层下应赋存有二叠系煤系地层并蕴藏着丰富的煤炭资源,前景较好,可作为煤炭勘查的后备基地。     

The Lowest Supply and Demand of Engineering Officers of National Vessels in Taiwan

This article is based on the number of engineering officers from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan, and adopts a 6-year moving average to work out the transition probability of engineering officers and to construct an absorbing Markov Transition Matrix to forecast the terms of seniority and annual supply in each hierarchy. In order to estimate the minimum number of vessels needed, this article also employed the quantity of demand for imported consumer goods from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan and applied a Grey model to predict the annual quantity of demand for imported consumer goods. Furthermore, this article estimated the minimum number of demand for engineering officers according to the minimum number of vessels needed. In addition, this paper used cross-analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of engineering officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results, which can be valuable references for pertinent authorities.     

An exploratory study of operational reasons to budget

Budgets are used widely but criticized, mainly for performance evaluation reasons. We find that organizations regard budgets as more important for planning and control than evaluation, thus proposing a rationale for their continued use irrespective of evaluation‐based criticisms. This finding is also important, because most extant budget research focuses on evaluation, suggesting a potential disconnect between budget research and practice. We also find that rolling forecasts are used in tandem with the annual budget in most organizations, and for the same reasons. This was unexpected, as coexistence suggests their adoption for different reasons.